For many months, security experts have warned that there is a high threat of extremist violence surrounding the 2024 U.S. election. The assassination attempt on former President Trump on July 13, 2024, is exactly the kind of political violence that experts have predicted will occur in response to a variety of factors including instability, violent rhetoric, and heightened political tension as well as disinformation exacerbated by artificial intelligence. Council on Foreign Relations research fellow Jacob Ware released a list of warning signs and possible points of election violence including:
- Warning signs
- Existential political rhetoric used by political figures
- Casting doubt over election results, especially before voting commences
- Armed paramilitary mobilization, including on social media
- Spreading of foreign disinformation and interference
- Threats leading up to the election
- Violence at political rallies/meetings including the Republican National Convention and Democratic National Convention
- Meaningful dates associated with specific political figures (i.e. the day former President Trump was convicted of 34 felonies)
- Threats during the election
- Intimidation and violence against voting centers and election workers
- Violent threats towards ballot counters
- Threats following the election
- Attacks on government buildings / law enforcement
- Constitutional milestones (i.e. electoral vote, counting of votes, inauguration day, or the January 6 anniversary)
Election violence and its threat to U.S. democracy impacts all of us, and we have a responsibility to respond in a way that promotes peace and understanding in times of great tension. As leaders in the Episcopal community, we can prepare by being familiar with the threats of political violence, practicing de-escalation in tense moments, and having a response ready to share with your community if political violence continues. Some resources for response and de-escalation are:
- The Crisis Prevention Institute’s four steps to de-escalation
- Faith in Public Life’s de-escalation training for people of faith video
- The Center for Strategic & International Studies’ analysis and commentary
- The CSIS’s Defending Democratic Institutions Page
- The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s guide to generative A.I. and rumor vs. reality page
- The Council on Foreign Relations’ response and recommendations following the Trump assassination attempt
At their core, responses to escalating and tense situations leading up to this year’s election need to be guided by peace and truth. By educating ourselves on current issues and warning signs, we can better lead by pushing back against political violence.