by Elizabeth Harnett

Writing from a packed hall of climate experts, environmental ministers and U.N. bureaucrats, I see a mix of emotions on display: optimism, pragmatism, frustration, exhaustion. People here at the 29th Conference of Parties of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, feel the weight of the task ahead of them.

These latest climate talks have been ongoing for the past week and a half; and with only three days until the official close of the conference, time is running out to make tangible progress on international climate rules and actions. The stakes have never been higher.

Global average temperature rise since the industrial revolution has surpassed 1.5^oC for the first time, and extreme weather events are increasingly common across every continent. Climate mitigation will be critical to avoid these trends worsening to catastrophic levels in the future, but adaptation measures are also increasingly prominent in negotiations and side-events here in Baku as we wake up to the reality that climate change is already here and will be—regardless of ambitious outcomes—for decades to come.

So what has happened at COP29 so far to be hopeful about?

• Leadership in setting early and ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). BothBrazil and the United Kingdomannounced their NDCs three months ahead of the February 2025 deadline and committed to targets in line with achieving global 1.5^oC pathways. The UK was also the first country to sign up to the Universal NDC Youth Clause campaign, which calls for countries’ commitment to harnessing intergenerational collaboration when implementing their NDCs. As the host of the next COP, Brazil’s announcement is also an important signal that it is willing to take a leading role in future climate action.
• 30 countries commit to methane reduction. The COP29 presidency launched the “Reducing Methane from Organic Waste Declaration,” signed by countries representing 50% of relevant emissions. Tackling methane emissions is crucial to limiting short-term climate impacts, with the greenhouse gas more than 80 times as harmful over a 20-year period than carbon dioxide.
• Progress in the carbon markets negotiations. After many years of contentious negotiations, progress has finally been made. A global carbon market framework under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement was endorsed last week, paving the way for carbon markets trading and accountability mechanisms. The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market also approved three methodologies for generating high-integrity carbon credits aimed at reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+).
• Climate finance commitments from a range of stakeholders. While the private finance sector has been relatively quiet in COP29, several public finance commitments have been announced in recent days. The Biden administration announced (at the parallel G20 meetings in Brazil) that bilateral climate finance increased to $11 billion by end of 2024, including an announcement of $325 million for the Clean Technology Fund. Additionally, at COP29, the Inter-American Development Bank announced it will scale climate investments in Latin America and the Caribbean by $11.3 billion annually by 2030. Australia and New Zealand both committed tens of millions to the Loss & Damage Fund, which was established at COP28 to assist countries impacted by climate change.

Yet there is much more to do:  

• The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG)—arguably the cornerstone of this COP—still needs to be negotiated. While the COP presidency and key parties have committed to reaching a deal during this COP, three fundamental decisions still need to be agreed upon. Firstly, the structure and vision of the financing goal, with parties at odds over whether this should be a single public finance total or a layered approach that captures a broader swath of public and private climate finance mechanisms. Secondly, the total amount of money included in the target, also known as the “quantum.” And thirdly, the “contributor base,” which will determine which parties will be expected to pay toward the NCQG.   
• Enhanced provisions for climate mitigation and adaptation remain undecided. It is unclear whether COP29 will see new agreements on how we reduce future, and cope with current, climate change. In the adaptation workstream, for example, progress in negotiations on National Adaptation Plans lost the race against the clock and further work will likely be delayed until mid-2025. Whether or not consensus is reached in Baku, retaining ambition in these negotiations will be critical for future action, with The Episcopal Church Policy Priorities calling on negotiators to uphold and affirm support for human rights, Indigenous peoples, migrants and refugees, Black, Indigenous, and people of color (BIPOC) communities, youth, women, LGBTQIA2S+ people, and people with disabilities.

Over the next few days, the latest global consensus and ambition on climate—and particularly climate finance—will be negotiated and announced. We continue to work and pray for transformative outcomes here in Baku, but we also know there is power for change in how we care for creation outside of these COP29 walls: in our local communities, cities, and countries. 

Elizabeth Harnett works as a climate finance expert at the Rocky Mountain Institute, a think-tank working to transform the global energy system to secure a clean, prosperous, zero-carbon future for all. Her work includes conducting research, workshops, and advisory services to help the financial sector align with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Originally from London, England, she has a doctorate in geography and the environment from the University of Oxford. Having moved to Colorado in 2022, Elizabeth joined the congregation at St. Aidan’s Episcopal Church in Boulder and now serves on St. Aidan’s Partnership and Visioning Committee.